Texas Biennial Revenue Estimate: 2012-2013 Page: II
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The Honorable Rick Perry, Governor
The Honorable David Dewhurst, Lieutenant Governor
The Honorable Joseph R. Straus, III, Speaker of the House
Members of the 82nd Legislature
January 10, 2011
Page Two
From the previous Texas payroll employment peak in the summer of 2008 to the bottoming of employment in
the Fall of 2009, the state lost 431,300 jobs, or 4.1 percent of its employees. Through November 2010, the state
had added back 220,400 of those lost jobs, and is on track to gain back all payroll jobs lost by the second half
of fiscal 2012. The state expects to see net job growth of 146,000 in fiscal 2011, 205,000 in fiscal 2012, and
259,000 in fiscal 2013.
The Texas economy, in inflation-adjusted terms, grew by 3.3 percent in fiscal 2008, declined by 1.5 percent
in 2009, and resumed growth in 2010, increasing year-over-year by 3.0 percent. This happened after annual
growth in both fiscal 2006 and 2007 exceeded 4.0 percent. Looking forward, the Texas economy is expected
to increase by 2.6 percent in 2011 compared to the previous year, and by a further 2.8 percent in 2012 and
3.4 percent in 2013-reflecting a growing population and revival of business activity.
Transfers to the Economic Stabilization Fund are projected to total $1.2 billion over the three-year fiscal
period 2011-13. After the fiscal 2013 transfer, the balance for this fund is expected to total $9.4 billion, absent
any appropriations during the upcoming legislative session.
Given the tentative nature of the recovery, continuing low levels of activity in the housing and lending
markets, as well as cautious consumers exhibiting substantially increased rates of savings, I believe the
estimates herein are prudently conservative.
In closing, the national and Texas economies appear to have turned the corner, however a strong period of
growth has yet to begin. In the event there are changes in agency spending patterns within this biennium, or
funds are received from the federal government, or from other state agencies, or significant changes occur in
economic conditions, this estimate will be updated-all to ensure that your deliberations are based on the most
accurate and timely information available.
Sincerely,
Susan Combs
Texas Comptroller
c: John O'Brien, Director, Legislative Budget BoardEnclosures
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Texas. Comptroller's Office. Texas Biennial Revenue Estimate: 2012-2013, book, January 2011; Austin, Texas. (https://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth578803/m1/4/?q=Lamar+University: accessed June 6, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, The Portal to Texas History, https://texashistory.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.