South Texas College of Law Annotations (Houston, Tex.), Vol. 33, No. 1, Ed. 1, August, 2002 Page: 3 of 10
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August 2002
News
Page 3
By Gary
Rosin
Professor
of Law
á
Are You At Risk on the Bar?
O
n the February
2002 administration of the
Texas Bar exam, only
70.5% of takers from Texas
law schools passed the Bar
on their first attempt. For
first-time takers from South
Texas College of Law
(STCL), the passage rate
was 67.4%. As shown in
Table 1, those passage rates
are down from those on the
July 2000 and July 2001
Bars, but are comparable
with those on the February
2001 Bar:
Table 1
First-Time Bar Passage Rates
Texas Law Schools
STCL
July 2000
81.7%
81.6%
Feb. 2001
68.5%
67.8%
July 2001
Q.A 1 CL
85.5%
OH. 1 7C
Feb. 2002
70.5%
67.4%
With the February 2003
Bar just around the corner,
many of you December
graduates must be wonder-
ing whether you are at risk
on the Bar. The question is
not whether you are at risk-
all graduates of all law
schools are at risk on the
Bar. The Bar exam is the
Mother of All Law Exams.
It covers most of the
subjects you took in law
school-and, probably, some
you didn't take. If you
don't take the Bar seriously,
you risk an unpleasant
surprise. Even Law Review
Editors-in-Chief sometimes
fail the Bar on first attempt.
While all students are at
risk on the Bar, all students
do not face the same degree
of risk. Both internal STCL
studies and the Law School
Admission Council's LSAC
National Longitudinal Bar
Passage Study show that,
on any particular administra-
tion of the Bar, the two
primary factors affecting
your chances of passing the
Bar on your first attempt are
your STCL GPA and your
LSAT. A third factor that
affects first-time Bar
passage rates is whether
you take the February or
the July Bar.
Chart 1
Texas Law School First-Time Takers
February and July Bar Passage Rates
95%
1991 1992 1993
■Feb
•July
Historical Trends
Let's begin by looking
at first-time Bar passage
rates for graduates of all
Texas law schools. Chart
1 illustrates three important
aspects of Bar passage
rates of first-time takers.
First, Bar passage rates
have generally been falling
since either 1990, for July
Bar exams, or 1994, for
February Bar exams.
Second, except in 1994,
February Bar passage rates
are generally lower than
July Bar passage rates.
Third, February Bar
passage rates are much
more volatile than are July
Bar passage rates.
Chart 2 compares the
July first-time Bar passage
rates of STCL and of all
Texas law schools
Year
since 1990. The STCL
passage rates generally track
the movement the passage
rates for all Texas Law
schools, sometimes above, and
sometimes below. As might be
expected given the smaller
number of STCL takers, the
STCL passage rates are more
volatile than the overall passage
rates for all Texas law schools.
Chart 3 shows a similar
relationship between the
February first-time Bar pas-
sage rates of STCL and of all
Texas law schools since 1990.
Again, the STCL bar passage
rates are more volatile than the
overall passage rates for all
Texas law schools.
Recent Bar Passage Rates
by STCL GPA and LSAT
As already noted, the
primary factors affecting
first-time Bar passage are
the GPA you earned in law
school and your LSAT.
Chart 4 (July) and Chart 5
(February) show the effect
of STCL GPA on the fitted
(estimated) probabilities of
passing the Bar on the first
attempt. Each chart
has two probability curves,
one for an LSAT of 148,
and one for an LSAT of
154. On recent Bar exams,
LSAT's of 148 and 154
were the cutoffs for the 25th
and 75th percentiles,
respectively, of recent first-
time takers.
Table 2 shows the
relative minimum STCL
GPA necessary for various
estimated probabilities of
passing the Bar on the first
attempt by LSAT and Bar
administration. The three
Chart 2
STCL vs. All Texas Law Schools (State)
July Bar Passage Rates (First-Time Takers)
100% t
90%
c
| 85%
Q.
t
5
e
80%
75%
70%
! j j
1 1 j 1 \
j | } í i
! ! 1
j j j
j
1 1 I
j | | | j
1 ¡
! I 1
•STCL
■ State
LSAT's shown, 148,150
and 154 are the cutoffs for
the 25th, 50th and 75th
percentiles, respectively, of
persons taking the Bar.
Table 2
July 2000 & 2001 vs.
February 2001 & 2002
Minimum STCL GPA Neces-
sary for
Fitted Probability of Passing
Bar on First Attempt
Bar & LSAT
February
150
154
July
148
150
154
Probability of Passing
.90 .75 .50 .25
3.14 2.87 2.59 2.31
3.11 2.83 2.56 2.28
3.05 2.77 2.50 2.22
2.83 2.55 2.27 NA
2.80 2.52 2.24 NA*
2.73 2.46 2.18 NA
1991 1992 1993
1998 1999 2000 2001
July
For example, for recent
July first-time takers, a
person with an LSAT of
148 needed a STCL GPA
of at least 2.83 to have a
0.90 estimated probability
of passing the Bar, while a
person with an LSAT of
154 needed only a 2.73.
For recent February first-
time takers, a person with
an LSAT of 148 needed at
least a 3.14 to have a 0.90
estimated probability of
passing the Bar, while a
person with an LSAT of
154 needed only a 3.05.
The February Effect
One of the oddities of
Bar statistics is what I call
the "February Effect."
Across the country, first-
time Bar passage rates are
lower in February than in
July. As shown in Chart 1,
the same holds true for
first-time Bar passage rates
of students from Texas law
schools. As shown in
Chart 6, the estimated
probabilities of passing the
Bar on the first attempt
have been lower for STCL
students on recent February
Bars than on recent July
Bars.
The reason why is not
entirely clear. Persons
taking the February Bar
may have less time to
prepare. If you assume that
people don't start studying
for the Bar until after the
holidays-after the college
football Bowl games-that
leaves perhaps seven
weeks to get ready for the
Bar. If July takers don't
start studying until after
graduation, they have eight
to ten weeks.
See BAR, pg. 4
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Washington, Natherral J. South Texas College of Law Annotations (Houston, Tex.), Vol. 33, No. 1, Ed. 1, August, 2002, newspaper, August 2002; Houston, Texas. (https://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth144551/m1/3/?q=%22%22~1: accessed July 17, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, The Portal to Texas History, https://texashistory.unt.edu.; crediting South Texas College of Law.