Texas Register, Volume 11, Number 83, Pages 4557-4604, November 4, 1986 Page: 4,592
4557-4604 p. ; 28 cm.View a full description of this periodical.
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TABLE 2
ESTIMATED GROWTH RATES FOR TEXAS PERSONAL INCOME, USING
FIVE ECONOMETRIC MODELS AND TWO TIME-SERIES FORECASTS,
1986-87 BIENNIUM TO 1988-89 BIENNIUM
1988-89 Texas
Personal Income
Source of Forecast Growth Rate
A. ECONOMETRIC MODELS1. Baylor University Forecasting
Service
2. Bureau of Business Research,
University of Texas at Austin (BBR)
3. Chase Econometric Associates, Inc.
4. Comptroller of Public Accounts
5. Data Resources, Inc. (DRI)
B. TIME-SERIES FORECASTS6.
7.Univariate - ARIMA (BBR)
Bivariate - U.S. GNP (using Wharton
forecast) and Texas Personal
Income (BBR)1.106
1.162
1.114
1.124
1.131
1.141
1.167NOTE: The growth rates shown above can be interpreted in percentage terms. For
example, the growth rate of 1.106 for the Baylor forecast of Texas
personal income indicates estimated personal income growth of 10.6% for
the 1988-89 biennium.(Cd hg be 198 IAmittion. The limitation on ap-
papriaions of state tax revenue not dedicated by the State
Constitution in the 1988-89 biennium may be illustrated
by selecting a growth rate and applying it to the 1986-87
approprtions base. This is shown in Table 3, using thelowest and highest growth rates shown in Table 2. Depend-
ing on which personal income growth rate is adopted, cur-
rent estimates suggest a limitation on 1988-89 biennial
appropriations from non-dedicated state taxes ranging
from $21.3 billion to $22.4 billion.TABLE 3
LIMIT ON 1988-89 BIENNIUM APPROPRIATIONS
OF STATE TAX REVENUE NOT DEDICATED BY
THE TEXAS CONSTITUTION1. 1986-87 Base
2. Illustrative Growth Rates
1988-89 Limitation on
3. Growth in Appropriations$19,213,490,732
x 1.106
$21,250,120,750$19,213,490,732
x 1.167
$22,422,143,684APPENDIX A
BIENNIUM-TO-BIENNIUM GROWTH RATES IN TEXAS
1962-63 TO 1984-85 BIENNIAPERSONAL INCOME
Base Biennium
1960-61
1962-63
1964-65Target Biennium
1962-63
1964-65
1966-67ii TexReg 4592 November 4, 1986 Texas RegLuer 4
Growth Rate
1.102
1.131
1.187Taxis Reater Alp
11 Tari 45392 November 4, 1986
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Texas. Secretary of State. Texas Register, Volume 11, Number 83, Pages 4557-4604, November 4, 1986, periodical, November 4, 1986; Austin, Texas. (https://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth243830/m1/36/: accessed July 18, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, The Portal to Texas History, https://texashistory.unt.edu.; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.