Jewish Herald-Voice (Houston, Tex.), Vol. 100, No. 23, Ed. 1 Thursday, September 11, 2008 Page: 7 of 36
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Page 7
Jewish Herald-Voice
September 11, 2008
News analysis
How the Kadima vote is expected to play out in Israel
By LESLIE SUSSER
JERUSALEM (JTA) - With the
Kadima Party leadership primary just
days away, Israeli Foreign Minister
Tzipi Livni looks like a likely winner.
The latest opinion poll shows her
20 percentage points ahead of her
closest rival in the contest that could
produce Israel’s next prime minister.
The Sept. 17 Kadima Party vote
follows Israeli Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert’s announcement that he
would resign following a string of
corruption scandals. Assuming the
primary winner can put together a
coalition government, she - or he
- would assume the premiership.
Livni’s closest competition, accord-
ing to the polls, is Transportation
Minister Shaul Mofaz, with the two other
candidates, Internal Security Minister
Avi Dichter and Interior Minister Meir
Sheetrit, stuck in the single digits.
For Mofaz to have even an outside
chance at winning the primary, the
pollsters would have to be significantly
off. That is not beyond the bounds of
possibility.
In the run-up to the 2005 Labor
leadership primary, polls showed
Shimon Peres beating his main rival,
Amir Peretz, by 20 points. But Peretz
pulled off a major upset, edging out
his octogenarian rival by 2 percent.
What pollsters hadn’t considered was
Peretz’s brilliant election-day machine
for getting supporters to the polls.
Mofaz, a former Israel Defense
Forces chief of staff who has a strong
body of activist Kadima supporters,
will be hoping for something similar.
Kadima’s party leader is to be
elected by the party’s membership -
about 72,000 people. Recruitment of
new members with full voting rights
was allowed until registration closed
on July 31.
That opened up a recruitment
race among the candidates, with each
trying to bring in as many potential
supporters as possible. That, in turn,
spawned a system of so-called mega-
recruiters and vote contractors: people
with grassroots connections and
influence who undertook wholesale
recruitment for the various candidates,
promising to deliver blocs of support.
TZIPI LIVNI and SHAUL MOFAZ
Support for Mofaz is high among
these party strongmen, as well
as with party mayors, who could
influence voters. However, it doesn’t
look like enough to turn the tide.
The key factor in the Kadima
primary - the party’s first since its
founding by Ariel Sharon as a centrist
alternative to Likud - has been the
widespread perception that Livni is
the only candidate capable of winning
a national election for Kadima.
The latest poll, conducted by the
Dialog organization, shows Livni
winning with 40 percent of the Kadima
vote, followed by Mofaz with 20 percent,
Dichter with 6 percent and Sheetrit with
5 percent; 28 percent are undecided.
If no candidate wins at least 40
percent in the Sept. 17 vote, there
will be a runoff between the top two
a week later. In such a scenario with
Mofaz and Livni the winners, the poll
shows Livni defeating Mofaz by 51
percent to 31 percent.
The first task for the Kadima victor
will be to try to form a governing
coalition. Success will depend foremost
on whether he or she can count on all
29 Kadima Knesset votes. If Mofaz
wins, Livni has made it plain that she
might well leave Kadima and form a
breakaway faction; he might do the
same, if she wins.
On the assumption that she wins
and Kadima does not split, Livni has
been receiving two contradictory sets
of advice. Some of her confidants are
urging her to do all she can to form
Olmert, Abbas meet and discuss agreement
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert and Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas met in
Jerusalem recently. The meeting,
at the prime minister’s official
residence, was likely the last before
Olmert’s Kadima Party holds
elections Sept. 17, after which
Olmert has said he would step down
as prime minister.
Olmert reportedly reprimanded
Abbas for meeting with freed
Lebanese terrorist Samir Kuntar. He
also pledged to complete a peace
deal this year, a target set by the
American administration. It had
been rumored that Olmert wmdd
push for an interim agreement to
present to U.S. President George W.
Bush in September. Olmert officials
denied that the prime minister
spoke with Abbas about such an
agreement, and Palestinian officials
indicated they would refuse it,
saying they would hold out for a
comprehensive agreement.
Abbas asked Olmert to release
additional prisoners, according
to reports, but the prime minister
did not commit to doing so. Israel
freed 198 Palestinian prisoners in a
goodwill gesture recently. Olmert was
also set to recommend international
oversight for negotiations over
Jerusalem, according to Plaaretz, an
Israeli newspaper.
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who
attended part of the meeting with
her Palestinian counterpart Ahmed
Queri, criticized Olmert’s rush to get a
preliminary agreement signed during
a Cabinet meeting. “We mustn’t let
timetables dictate our actions and
cause us to try and bridge large gaps
in a way that may lead to an impasse
or force us to concede on issues that
are critical to Israel just to achieve
results,” Livni said. - JTA
a government and then run in new
elections in a year or two from the
position of prime minister. They argue
that if Livni establishes herself as a
bona fide national leader, she will have
a much better chance of winning.
Others say that instead of
trying to form a government, Livni
should exploit her current wave of
popularity and go for immediate
general elections. The Labor Party,
which is currently down in the polls,
also faces an acute dilemma:
If Livni wins, should Labor join
the coalition and try to rebuild its
electoral strength from inside the
government, or clip Livni’s wings
by bolting the coalition and thereby
preventing her having enough seats
to form a government? If Labor goes
in with Livni, it will help boost her
standing as prime minister; if it stays
out, it risks early elections in which
polls show Labor would take an
unprecedented beating.
The new political situation in
Israel highlights the Labor-Kadima
paradox. On the one hand, the two
parties share a similar centrist
ideology and are natural allies
against the Israeli right. On the other
hand, precisely because they are
ideologically close, they must fight
for the same political space.
Likud, which still leads in most
polls, will want to press for early
elections before Livni gains stature
as a recognized national leader. There
is talk of a possible Labor-Likud
coalition without Kadima, leaving
Livni to wither in the opposition.
But, as appealing as this may appear
at first glance to Labor’s Ehud Barak
and Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu,
it is highly unlikely. Netanyahu would
not want to help Barak, who is currently
trailing in the polls, by crowning him
prime minister. And the Labor left
would not countenance a coalition with
Likud and the far right at the expense
of a would-be peacemaking partnership
with Kadima.
The key to whether Livni is able
to form a coalition could lie with
the fervently Orthodox Sephardic
Shas Party. Shas will make heavy
demands - for example, restoration
of hefty allowances for families
with many children. Livni so far has
not made any promises to Shas or
anyone else. That has been one of the
reasons for her popularity. How she
deals with the pressures of coalition-
building could be a first real test of
her leadership potential.
As for the outgoing Olmert, even
though he will formally resign after
the Kadima primaries next week, he
will stay on as acting prime minister
until a new government is formed.
Even the threat of a potential
indictment against the prime minister
- Israeli police this week recommended
to Israel’s attorney general, Menahem
Mazuz, that Olmert be indicted on
two corruption-related charges - is
not expected to change the political
picture. If Mazuz ultimately decides to
indict Olmert, he is unlikely to do so
imminently.
Once the Kadima primary is over,
the new Kadima leader would have six
weeks to form a government. If she or
he succeeds, the winner could choose
to govern or use the majority to call
for early general elections. If she or he
fails, President Shimon Peres could
give another Knesset member a chance
to form a government or call early
elections if there is no likely candidate.
One way or another, the scandal-ridden
Olmert era is fast coming to a close. □
Shalev presents UN credentials
Israel’s first female ambassador
to the United Nations presented her
credentials to the secretary-general.
Gabriela Shalev began her tenure as
Israel’s permanent representative to
the UN on Sept. 8.
“As a woman, as a law professor
and, above all, as a proud Israeli, I am
honored to be given the opportunity
to represent Israel in the dynamic
arena of the United Nations,” Shalev
said as she presented her credentials
to Ban Ki-moon. “While our priority
remains the security of Israel and
addressing the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict, I intend to engage Israel
on a wide range of other issues
such as scientific and technological
initiatives, and children and women’s
rights.”
Shalev is an internationally
recognized expert in comparative
and contract law. Prior to her
appointment, she served as president
of the Academic Council and rector
of Ono Academic College in Israel.
Until 2002, she was a professor of
contract law at the Hebrew University
of Jerusalem and in the past taught at
Harvard Law School, Boston College
and Temple University, as well as at
other institutions of higher education
across the United States, Canada and
Europe. - JTA
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Samuels, Jeanne F. Jewish Herald-Voice (Houston, Tex.), Vol. 100, No. 23, Ed. 1 Thursday, September 11, 2008, newspaper, September 11, 2008; Houston, Texas. (https://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth544306/m1/7/: accessed July 17, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, The Portal to Texas History, https://texashistory.unt.edu.; .