The Tulia Herald (Tulia, Tex.), Vol. 93, No. 52, Ed. 1 Thursday, December 27, 2001 Page: 10 of 14
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PAGE TWO B
THE TULIA (Swisher County) HERALD
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27, 2001
Cotton Marketing
by O.A. Cleveland.
The cotton market gave a bit of
ground this week, but remains within
its 34.50 to 38 cent trading range.
Unofficial news from China that the
Chinese crop could be 900,000 bales
larger than forecast by USDA sent
the market south on Wednesday This
took price activity from the upper end
of the trading range back to the lower
end. The coming weeks appear to
ofTcr much of the same range bound
price acuvity
The “official” Chinese estimate
comes from the State Statistical Bu-
reau (SSB) Traditionally, they re-
lease their initial estimate the last
week of the year and update it again
in late February Confirmation that
the crop is that much larger than
expected would force the market to
challenge its price support just below
35 cents Failure to maintain that
support level would likely send the
March contract back to the unhealthy
3 3-cent level
Export business remains strong and
the US remains on track to reach
USDA’s9 8 million-bale export esu- higher
NCC Urges Senate
Action On Farm Bill
mate. Holiday business will be sea-
sonally limited as expected. Grower
offering prices around the world re-
main firm with only a slight weak-
ness in merchant-to-merchant quotes
for a small number of growths. This
limited weakness is likely a result of
the holiday season, but only time will
confirm that. In that regard, remem-
ber, the next two weeks will be lim-
ited to three trading days each. The
market will be closed on Monday and
Tuesday of the next two weeks.
The world price, as measured by
the A-Index, has remained firm
through the current trading range
and is expected to hold the 43-cent
level The POP/LDP for the coming
week is projected to move lower by 12
points, down to 22 99 cents.
Repeating myself, but characteris-
tic of the holiday season, look for
New York futures to remain within
the current trading range. Longer
term, I continue to expect the A-
Index will move two to three cents
TELCOT
“Members of the National Cotton
Council appreciate the efforts of mem-
bers and leaders of the Senate to
fashion new farm legislauon that
holds promise for restoring economic
\ lability to American agriculture,”
NCC Chairman James E Echols of
Memphis said m a letter to Senate
leaders Thomas A Daschle (D-SD)
and Trent Lott (R-MS) “However,
we are now extremely discouraged
that deliberations have stalled. Un-
less new farm law is enacted promptly,
many fanners simply will not be able
to secure production financing for the
new season ”
Echols’ comments came shortly
after the Senate failed for a third time
to reach an agreement on a time limit
for debate and final passage of new
farm legislauon that could be sent to
conference with the House
The Council’ members had urged
the Senate to complete its work on a
farm bill before recessing for the holi-
days. Following adjournment, the
Senate will not return to session until
Jan. 23
“There has not been a time since
the Great Depression when Ameri-
can agriculture was under greater
economic stress and m greater need
for new farm policy that provides a
better income safety net while facili-
tating international competitive-
ness,” Echols’ letter stated.
“Our membership, from producer
to textile manufacturer, joins unani-
mously m urging the Senate to re-
sume deliberations as quickly as pos-
sible to finalize legislation that is
absolutely essenUal to the restoration
of economic viability for American
agriculture.”
Tulia Livestock
Auction
There was no sale
this Monday due
to the holidays!
Our next sale will
be Monday,
January 7, 2002
Happy
New Year!
Bobby Parrott, Owner----------806-842-3594
Valarie Sturgess, Owner-------806-627-4486
Karl Berry, Yard Foreman-----806-627-7024
Arnold Smith, Field Rep-------806-463-2344
Mobile-----------806-346-3544
For information or for consignment
Call Tulia Livestock Auction at 995-4184
With the cessation of debate, Senate Democrats and Republicans are
likely gearing up to face the music when they return home after Congress
adjourns.
One thing is certain, few are going to be welcomed with open arms by
their agricultural constituents after three weeks of unproductive speeches,
debate and posturing prevented Senate completion of new Farm Program
legislation.
In times past a lack oftechnology prevented most people from seeing and
heanng the debate over important legislative issues. With the spreading
availability of cable, satellite television and the Internet virtually everyone
can judge for themselves who is speaking for them and who has been listening
to them when they talk.
With harvest acUvities practically completed as winter approached,
farmers and ranchers have been a rapt and attentive audience to the live
Senate broadcasts emanating from Washington.
And while it is fair to say that most of us that were watching probably
don’t fully understand all of the rules and procedural goings on, we are able
to digest the words that are spoken for, against and about farm programs and
the needs of rural America.
Producers have made it clear that they were watching and will likely base
much oftheir future support for candidates and parties on what they have seen
in the days since the first of December
That said they also understand, although without much enthusiasm, that
while this opportunity has been taken from them there will be another day
when Congress returns. The critical nature of Agriculture's problems will
probably have intensified and highlight the need to finish the work the Senate
abandoned earlier this week.
Congress, however, is not the only branch of government that will have
to step up to the plate to assuage the fears and doubts that recent antics have
produced.
Administration officials have apparently started their own efforts to
reassure American agriculture that budget authority will continue to be there
for a rewnte of current Farm law
A letter sent to House Agriculture Committee Chairman Larry Combest
on December 21 thanking him for his efforts on the farm bill included the
following promise “The President has also been clear about the need for a
generous farm bill in order to help farmers and ranchers through this difficult
period. As a result, you have our commitment that the Administration will
continue to support additional ten-year program funding of $73 5 billion in
accordance with the Congressional Budget Resolution ”
Administration officials are surely hoping that their word is good enough
for producers and that they don’t end up feeling the political fallout from this
month’s debacle in the Senate
The fair question at this point is “What’s next and where do we go from
here?”
First and foremost it is important that producers not let up on their efforts
to communicate both their needs and their expectations to Congress and
Administration officials
Plains Cotton Growers andother orgamzauons will continue their efforts
to complete a new Farm Bill Only through a determined effort to keep the
issue on the front burner will a Bill be completed in a timely fashion
A big part of that message also needs to be that, because the last year of
Freedom to Farm is globally recognized as inadequate to meet the needs of
a hurting Ag sector, new programs need to be agreed on and implemented for
the 2002 crop.
Secondaiy to the goal of getting a new Farm Bill is the fact that if
additional delays and disagreements prevent approval ofle’gisbtion thmean^
be implemented for the 2002 ~rop year, every effort will have to be made to
develop a 2002 supplemental assistance package utilizing the $7 5 billion in
additional spending authority agreed to in the FY2002 budget agreement.
New York cotton futures bounced
and meandered in a sideways pattern
this week in lethargic, pre-year-end
holiday trading. With the cotton mar-
ket already in “holiday mode,” sur-
prising weekly U.S export numbers
and expectations for a larger cotton
crop in China did little to influence
futures prices.
Erratic New York cotton futures
prices during the week ended Dec. 13
may have softened export sales as
commitments of 2001-02 crop U.S.
cotton dropped to the lowest level in
eight weeks at 169,900 bales. Can-
cellations i ncreased for the week with
approximately half of those by Tur-
key, the first material cancellations
of the marketing year. Net registra-
tions, therefore, were smaller than
expected, declining 29 percent from
the previous week to the lowest level
since the week ended Oct. 8.
Sales to Mexico have continued
sluggish in a pre-holiday market,
though commitments to Asian coun-
tries have remained strong as import-
ers purchase competitively-priced
cotton to fill gaps in production.
U.S export shipments of 154,200
bales were down 20 percent from a
week ago and four percent below the
four-week average. However, total
U S cotton commitments for the year
climbed to approximately 9.1 million
bales, and shipments reached almost
3 5 million. Shipments need to aver-
age 185,000 bales per week for the
remainder of the season to reach
USDA’s estimate of 9 8 million bales
for the year
With slightly more than 32 weeks
remaining in the marketingyear, U.S.
exports have reached approximately
35 percent of the USDA forecast. A
year ago, shipments were roughly 27
percent of eventual exports.
The week’s major fundamental
development was a report that China’s
National Statistics Bureau has in-
creased its estimate of the country’s
cotton producUon to 24.4 million
bales, 900,000 bales higher than the
latest USDA forecast.
The news temporarily sent prices
into a steep dive even though rumors
that the Chinese crop likely would
exceed USDA’s estimate have been
circulatingforweeks. Hope that China
might become a big net cotton im-
porter after joining the World Trade
Organization already had mostly van-
ished. Additionally, reports of Chi-
nese export offerings, though priced
above prevailing international val-
ues, reinforced ideas that China’s
cotton crop indeed was abundant and
perhaps in excess of domestic needs.
Rumors also have circulated for
weeks that cotton planting in China
may fall sharply next year because of
deep farmer dissatisfaction with
prices. If the area devoted to cotton
were to fall 20 percent across the
entire country and other factors were
to remain equal, production would
plunge approximately 4 8 million
bales from the latest estimate of the
2001 output.
In other news, there is no doubt that
Congress will go home for Christmas
without passing a farm bill “Since
our legislators do not reconvene until
Jan. 23, there is a real possibility tliat
the National Colton Council conven-
tion will take place without any leg-
islation in place. The absence of farm
legislation ultimately may result in
fewer acres planted to cotton this
spring,” one analyst said. “Surely,
the pros and cons of the legislation
will be the primary talk in the Farm
Belt over the weekend,” he added.
On the spot cotton scene, online
sales of Texas, Oklahoma and Kan-
sas cotton for the week ended Dec. 20
totaled 14,883 bales, higher than the
previous week’s sales of 10,588 bales.
Prices received by growers selling
their cotton online rangedfrom 25.82
to 29.16 cents per pound compared to
a range of 27.68 to 28.84 cents per
pound the prior week.
Above all growers, lenders, and industiy suppliers must have the
assurance that relief is forthcoming so that financial arrangements for the
2002 crop year can move forward.
Preferably that assurance will come in the form of a new Farm Bill that
establishes a stable and predictable safety net for American agriculture.
The staff at The Tulia Herald would
like to thank our loyal readers
r.
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The Tulia Herald (Tulia, Tex.), Vol. 93, No. 52, Ed. 1 Thursday, December 27, 2001, newspaper, December 27, 2001; Tulia, Texas. (https://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth636477/m1/10/: accessed July 17, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, The Portal to Texas History, https://texashistory.unt.edu.; crediting Swisher County Library.